Leafwire Deal Memo (Closing Date: 2021-02-26)
Deal Abstract
Social network for weed consumers, producers, vendors, and industry. Is the future not just one LinkedIn but many different LinkedIns for different verticals?
Financials (VRB)
|Question|Notes|
|---|---|---|
|1. Fundraising Target? |$1500000|
|2. Fundraised So Far?|$544980|
|3. Pre-Money Valuation?|$8000000|
|4. Previous Year's Annual Revenue |$111012|
|5. Previous Year's Annual Net Income (+ Profitable, - Burning Cash) |~$-657803|
The 6 Calacanis Characteristics ("Sow Passion, Not easy mediocrity", or S2 P6 N18)
| Criteria | Yes/No |
|---|---|
| 1. A startup that is based in SV? | False: Denver, CO |
| 2. Has at least 2 founders? | True: Two |
| 3. Has product in the market? | True: Revenue generating |
| 4. 6 months of continuous user growth or 6 months of revenue? | True: Revenue grew from $6k to $111k, 2018 to 2019 |
| 5. Notable investors? | False: No one I recognize |
| 6. Post-funding, will have 18 months of runway? | True: Will need roughly $900k for 18 months runway |
The 7 Thiel Questions (Every Time Man Profits, Don't Dismiss Serendipity)
| Question | Score | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Engineering? | 1 | Looks like a specialized version of LinkedIn |
| 2. Timing? | 1 | Not sure why having a specialized version of LinkedIn right now is advantageous |
| 3. Monopoly? | 3 | Strong traction in a very niche market |
| 4. People? | 2 | Good executive team but no one with social network business experience |
| 5. Distribution? | 3 | Strong traction implies good distribution |
| 6. Durability? | 2 | If weed gets completely destigmatized, does that mean LinkedIn eats Leafwire's lunch? |
| 7. Secret? | 1 | Leafwire is going to provide cover for a taboo industry of marajuana and ultimately becomes the LinkedIn for all ugly jobs that don't live on LinkedIn |
What has to go right for the startup to return money on investment:
1. Reach dominant position in marajuana; 2. Expand beyond marajuana; 3. Clarify what the business is.
What the Risks Are
1. This business is destined to sunset as ugly jobs become increasingly more accepted e.g. weed becomes less stigmatized; 2. TAM at present very small; 3. What's the special sauce of this business that will allow it competitive advantages in other domains?
Bonus Muhan's Notes
Colorado seems to incubate some strong niche businesses e.g. BiggerPockets
Updates
This is where I’ll post updates about the company. This way all my notes from offering to post-offering updates will be on one page.
Review these deal memos every time the startup raises a new round
Test if original thesis still applies
Notice trends in how you think
So, did I invest?
Click here to find out.Other thoughts, questions, comments, or concerns? Write me at mail@muhanzhang.com and let me know.