Maybe Finance Deal Memo (Closing Date: 2021-10-08)

Muhan Zhang -

Deal Abstract

Invest in Maybe
Republic is a startup investing platform where you can invest as little as $10 in impactful startups
Republic

Modern Mint.com targeted to a premium user base wants to make money by charging you for a SaaS platform. Can they pull off a $130m exit a la Mint.com to Intuit?

Financials (VRB)

Question Notes
1. Fundraising Target? $1000000
2. Fundraised So Far? $131000
3. Pre-Money Valuation? $10000000
4. Previous Year's Annual Revenue $0
5. Previous Year's Annual Net Income (+ Profitable, - Burning Cash) ~$0
Source

The 6 Calacanis Characteristics ("Sow Passion, Not easy mediocrity", or S2 P6 N18)

Criteria Yes/No
1. A startup that is based in SV? True: San Francisco, CA
2. Has at least 2 founders? False: Two
3. Has product in the market? False: Pre-product
4. 6 months of continuous user growth or 6 months of revenue? False: Pre-revenue
5. Notable investors? False: First outside money
6. Post-funding, will have 18 months of runway? True: No net income
Source

The 7 Thiel Questions (Every Time Man Profits, Don't Dismiss Serendipity)

Question Score Notes
1. Engineering? 2 Slightly better Mint.com
2. Timing? 2 More self admin investors
3. Monopoly? 1 No market share
4. People? 2 Good CEO but only dude
5. Distribution? 2 No big brand name for adoption
6. Durability? 2 Couldn't anyone with a Plaid developer account do this?
7. Secret? 2 Self managed financial customers will pay money for a financial dashboard, or somehow this company beats Mint.com at their business

What has to go right for the startup to return money on investment:

1. Capture a premium market a la Mint.com; 2. Go to market and monetize; 3. Find ways to make money besides just information and advisory, probably start to offer proprietary financial products at some point

What the Risks Are

1. Pre-revenue; 2. Nice to have not an urgent painkiller; 3. Still a one-man product not a business yet

Bonus Muhan's Notes

Love to see it but need to see more business fundamentals before believing this is worth $10m

Updates

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So, did I invest?

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Other thoughts, questions, comments, or concerns? Write me at mail@muhanzhang.com and let me know.