Deal Abstract

Another “virtue” aspirational competitor to Amazon. Company has existed for a decade and burned $100m in capital. Compare to DoneGood two years ago. Revenue decreased in last year, was an acquihire, Fancy’s Founder and CEO has been replaced, and I’m skeptical that a16z ( among others have invested in this company.

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The 6 Calacanis Characteristics (91 161 18)

1. A startup that is based in SVNo: New York, NY
2. Has at least 2 founders Yes (3)
3. Has product in the market Yes
4. 6 months of continuous user growth or 6 months of revenue.No: 2018 to 2019, revenue went from 2.16M to $877k.
5. Notable investors?Allegedly: General Catalyst, a16z, Jack Dorsey, Will Smith, and Carlos Slim.
6. Post-funding, will have 18 months of runway No: 2019 burn was $4.2m and only fundraised $436k so far. This is 1.2 months of runway.

The 7 Thiel Questions (ETMPDDS)

  1. The Engineering question (Can you create breakthrough technology instead of incremental improvements?):
    • Bad: Don’t see this as better than
  2. The Timing question (Is now the right time to start your particular business?): 
    • Bad: Jeff Bezos has made nearly $100 BILLION (that’s b as in baller, b as in bazonkers, b as in Bezos…) since the pandemic (source.) Not convinced this is a good time to go against Amazon. Maybe it’ll never be a good time to compete against Bezos lol.
  3. The monopoly question (Are starting with a big share from a small market?): 
    • Bad: Never heard of this company before today.
  4. The people question (Do you have the right team?): 
  5. The distribution question (Do you have a way to deliver your product?): 
    • Average: Online commerce.
  6. The durability question (Will your market position be defensible 10 and 20 years into the future?): 
  7. *What is the hopeful secret? (Have you identified an unique opportunity that others don’t see?): 
    • Virtue will finally matter in markets. See this related post from Thiel and Zero-to-One: “Tesla knew the secret that people care more about showing off their virtue than actual virtue.”

What has to go right for the startup to return money on investment:

  1. Not convinced startup will make money on investment

What the Risks Are

  1. Amazon

Muhan’s Bonus Notes

Hope they prove me wrong but not holding my breathe.

Financials (References)

  • Current Fundraised: $436k
  • Valuation: ~$12MM


This is where I’ll post updates about the company. This way all my notes from offering to post-offering updates will be on one page.

Review these deal memos every time the startup raises a new round

Test if original thesis still applies

Notice trends in how you think

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