In the months following Fleeting, a new trucker-on-demand marketplace has emerged with higher revenue, lower valuation, but also, smaller team and less institutional investors. Who will win the Uber for trucker driver war?
|1. Fundraising Target? |$1070000|
|2. Fundraised So Far?|$195715|
|3. Pre-Money Valuation?|$8000000|
|4. Previous Year's Annual Revenue |$461117|
|5. Previous Year's Annual Net Income (+ Profitable, - Burning Cash) |~$-229101|
The 6 Calacanis Characteristics ("Sow Passion, Not easy mediocrity", or S2 P6 N18)
|1. A startup that is based in SV?||False: Norco, CA|
|2. Has at least 2 founders?||False: Two|
|3. Has product in the market?||True: Revenue generating|
|4. 6 months of continuous user growth or 6 months of revenue?||True: Impressive growth from 2018 to 2019|
|5. Notable investors?||False: No one I recognize|
|6. Post-funding, will have 18 months of runway?||True: Needs $400k|
|1. Engineering?||2||Better than nothing, but curious to compare to Fleeting|
|2. Timing?||2||Is now the right time to start a truck driver labor aggregation platform?|
|3. Monopoly?||4||Incredible revenue of $2m ARR on $8m valuation|
|4. People?||2||Good founder though he doesn't appear to have much of a team|
|5. Distribution?||3||Definitely able to sell/build the two sided marketplace|
|6. Durability?||1||This is what I don't know. Need to ask about Fleeting.|
|7. Secret?||2||Relay will be able to build a faster two sided marketplace than Fleeting.|
What has to go right for the startup to return money on investment:
1. Build faster and get tight network effects; 2. Scale a team to get more aggressive customer acquisition; 3. Anticipate the coming trucking automation and figure out how to get ahead
What the Risks Are
1. Over half a year later than Fleeting, which has star studded investors; 2. Trucking automation; 3. Payroll expense for 2019 was only 133k which means two employees, so I wonder if they'll be able to compete against Fleeting's team size
Bonus Muhan's Notes
Very, very cool. $2m ARR to $8m valuation may be one of the strongest revenue businesses I've seen. Going to ask the founder some key questions.
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Review these deal memos every time the startup raises a new round
Test if original thesis still applies
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