Deal Abstract
Very early stage DNA and environment genetic sequencing company (baby 23andme) is raising money to make a more complete genetic sequencing service.
Financials (VRB)
Question | Notes |
---|---|
1. Fundraising Target? | $1273722 |
2. Fundraised So Far? | $2000000 |
3. Pre-Money Valuation? | $34900000 |
4. Previous Year's Annual Revenue | $1436971 |
5. Previous Year's Annual Net Income (+ Profitable, - Burning Cash) | ~$-499746 |
The 6 Calacanis Characteristics ("Sow Passion, Not easy mediocrity", or S2 P6 N18)
Criteria | Yes/No |
---|---|
1. A startup that is based in SV? | False: Los Angeles, CA |
2. Has at least 2 founders? | False: Two |
3. Has product in the market? | True: Revenue |
4. 6 months of continuous user growth or 6 months of revenue? | True: Revenue grew by $200k in a year |
5. Notable investors? | False: None recognized |
6. Post-funding, will have 18 months of runway? | True: Just needs $750k |
The 7 Thiel Questions (Every Time Man Profits, Don't Dismiss Serendipity)
Question | Score | Notes |
---|---|---|
1. Engineering? | 2 | Seems like interesting technology, but decoding DNA in such a comprehensive way seems ambitious |
2. Timing? | 2 | Technology becoming cheaper but I wonder about demand |
3. Monopoly? | 2 | Grew to 2.7m in revenue in 2021, solid |
4. People? | 2 | Team seems good |
5. Distribution? | 2 | Online ordering and test results online |
6. Durability? | 2 | If they can build it, the data is definitely defensible |
7. Secret? | 2 | The demand for a 23andme informed by environmental development factors is large |
What has to go right for the startup to return money on investment:
1. Results have to be both specific and accurate; 2. Steal market share away from people doing DNA testing; 3. Start to give verifiably actionable preventative input
What the Risks Are
1. 23andme took 11 years to become worth 3.5bn, and that's with seed funding from the cofounder of Google; 2. How accurate can the environment get?; 3. How hard will it be for 23andme to copy the other features?
Bonus Muhan's Notes
Updates
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Review these deal memos every time the startup raises a new round
Test if original thesis still applies
Notice trends in how you think
So, did I invest?
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