Deal Abstract
Robotics startup with security bots looking like R2D2 wants to raise $25m on a $447m valuation to roll out omnipresent big brother police bots. Has product in the revenue, though growth stagnant. Fascinating peek into the market of innovation in law enforcement.
Financials (VRB)
|Question|Notes|
|---|---|---|
|1. Fundraising Target? |$25m|
|2. Fundraised So Far?|$769k|
|3. Pre-Money Valuation?|$447m|
|4. Previous Year's Annual Revenue |$1.6m|
|5. Previous Year's Annual Burn |~$9.1m|
The 6 Calacanis Characteristics ("Sow Passion, Not easy mediocrity", or S2 P6 N18)
Criteria | Yes/No |
---|---|
1. A startup that is based in SV? | Yes: Mountain View, CA |
2. Has at least 2 founders? | Yes: Five c-suite |
3. Has product in the market? | Yes |
4. 6 months of continuous user growth or 6 months of revenue? | No: check out 2020 vs 2019 rev, no growth. |
5. Notable investors? | No |
6. Post-funding, will have 18 months of runway? | No: Lacking a deadline but would need to raise ~$18m to have 18 months of runway, and not even at $1m right now. |
The 7 Thiel Questions (Every Time Man Profits, Don't Dismiss Serendipity)
Question | Score | Notes |
---|---|---|
1. Engineering? | 4 | Seems like awesome technology |
2. Timing? | 3 | Good time for automation, uncertain if good time for robot cops. |
3. Monopoly? | 2 | I've heard of this company but don't know anyone who owns one, that said, I'm not the market? |
4. People? | 3 | Seems good. |
5. Distribution? | 2 | My biggest fear. |
6. Durability? | 3 | Good, as they said, Machine-as-a-Service, like Graze. |
7. Secret? | 2 | In the next 3-5 years you're going to the security industry suddenly have the appetite for thousands of robots to help keep the peace. |
What has to go right for the startup to return money on investment:
- B2B sales
- Reduce CAC
- Reduce COGS
What the Risks Are
- Law Enforcement = Luddites
- How to Scale Software/Data
- Bikeshare in Rome
Bonus Muhan's Notes
Check out this link about law enforcement facing a very real, mundane business challenge of affording the one-time costs (bodycams) then nixing the program because they aren't cloud ready:
Updates
This is where I’ll post updates about the company. This way all my notes from offering to post-offering updates will be on one page.
Review these deal memos every time the startup raises a new round
Test if original thesis still applies
Notice trends in how you think
So, did I invest?
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